Is Nick Nurse’s short rotation sustainable for the Toronto Raptors?

TORONTO, ON – NOVEMBER 07: Fred VanVleet #23 celebrates with Pascal Siakam #43 of the Toronto Raptors during the first half of their NBA game against the Brooklyn Nets at Scotiabank Arena on November 7, 2021 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images)

In the aftermath of the Toronto Raptors’ incredible triple-overtime win in Miami on Saturday, fans on social media were quick to identify the preposterous minutes played by the Raptors starting five.

Led by Pascal Siakam’s 56 and a half minutes, each starter played at least 53 and a half as head coach Nick Nurse utilized just eight players across the 63 minutes of game time.

How the Toronto Raptors rotation has shortened over the past few seasons

Although triple-overtime games don’t help, this game isn’t an isolated event, with Nurse’s minutes’ construction having been on an intriguing trajectory over the last few seasons.

Throughout the 2021-22 season so far, Toronto has the top three players in minutes per game league-wide. Additionally, in Scottie Barnes (8th) and Gary Trent Jr. (25th), each of their regular starters are in the top 25.

In their championship-winning 2018-19 season, Nurse had three players (Kyle Lowry, Kawhi Leonard, and Pascal Siakam) playing over 30 minutes per game throughout the regular season. Granted, it was a much deeper, balanced squad, with Lowry and Leonard leading the way with 34 minutes per game.

While they may have still had three the following season, Lowry, Siakam, and Fred Van Vleet each player over 35 minutes per game. Last season, the Raptors had seven players over 30 minutes, albeit, Khem Birch played less than 20 games and Norman Powell was traded for Trent Jr. at the deadline.

The upwards trajectory has remarkably gone to another level this season, despite the fact that they’ve only been involved in two overtime games. The last time a Raptor played over 37 minutes per game was Lowry back in the 2016-17 regular season. Right now, three Raptors are averaging over 37 minutes.

Are these kinds of minutes sustainable, particularly for a young Toronto Raptors core that theoretically could be together for the next 7-8 years? 

Why is this the case? Firstly, the Raptors haven’t been helped by injuries and players entering into health and safety protocols. But more importantly, even though they have a young core, Nurse and the franchise seem hellbent on competing for the playoffs while developing.

Following a different outing against the Heat earlier in January, Nurse responded to the fact that he used just seven players.

“I know that’s a lot of minutes for some of those guys, but I felt comfortable,” Nurse said. “I thought I had six guys, I wanted them all out there”.

Clearly, Nurse, in his own words, is comfortable with his current rotation that sees large minutes for his starters. It’s an approach that’s endorsed by senior players, including Fred Van Vleet whose in line for his first all-star nod.

“Coach Nurse isn’t forcing anyone to play that doesn’t want to play. We signed up for this. We’ve got high-character guys, competitive guys, that like to be out there”.

Perhaps the biggest element is the roster construction. Given the lack of depth, maybe Nurse feels anxious giving regular minutes to those down the bench.

That will be a key for Toronto – to find a couple more players, whether externally or through inner development, that Nurse trusts in big games.

Until then, the exorbitant starter minutes will likely continue, as the Raptors push for a playoff berth. However, ultimately, the best teams go 9-11 deep in the regular season before shortening rotations come playoff time.

Nurse’s ‘every game is a playoff game’ approach may get them there, but it’s not a sustainable strategy for the long-term success of the team.