Denver Nuggets (Photo by Justin Tafoya/Getty Images)
The NBA’s return-to-play format is in place, and the Denver Nuggets have eight more regular season games to position themselves for the first round.
As regular-season play halted due to Covid-19, circumstances left the Denver Nuggets stuck in an unlikely, nightmare first-round matchup with the Houston Rockets. As the hiatus grew longer, chatter emerged regarding a possible direct postseason return, a proposition that would cement the current seedings.
The Nuggets caught a break, however, when the agreed-upon format was revealed, featuring eight additional regular season games to determine seeding. As it stands, Denver has a second chance to create its own destiny.
Now that several outcomes are possible, it’s time to scrutinize Western Conference opponents top-to-bottom, analyzing favorable and unfavorable matchups.
The Nuggets currently sit perched as the 3-seed, equally placed at 1.5 games behind the Clippers (presently in the 2-slot) and 1.5 games above the Utah Jazz (4th place). Denver’s only mathematic impossibility is falling below the 7-seed, so sharp play throughout the eight games is important.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers have all but secured the 1-seed, and they’re a common pick to win the title. The LA Clippers, barring extreme circumstances, won’t be Denver’s first-round opponent, as both squads should likely finish top-4. These Hollywood squads can be removed from the opening matchup discussion.
The eighth seed is interesting, as the Memphis Grizzlies lead the way, yet find the Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings nipping at their heels. However, it’s nearly impossible for Denver to obtain the 1-seed, or for the 8-seed to move up, so let’s exclude these teams from the discussion as well.
This leaves a high probability that the Denver Nuggets face the Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder or Utah Jazz in the first round, as these squads jockey for the 4-7 spots. All four teams are within 2.5 games of each other, so anything could happen here. The Jazz hold a one-game lead on the Rockets and Thunder, who are tied at the fifth spot. Dallas trails the pair by 1.5 games, so they are less likely to jump everyone and obtain the 4-seed.
Which of these squads do the Nuggets match up well with? If late games determine positioning, will Denver want to coincidentally rest starters for *cough* injury-management purposes? Let’s examine potential first-round matchups, ranked by desirability, as we explore who the Denver Nuggets could face in the opening series:
Denver Nuggets</a> stuck in an unlikely, nightmare first-round matchup with the Houston Rockets. As the hiatus grew longer, chatter emerged regarding a possible direct postseason return, a proposition that would cement the current seedings.</p>
<p>The Nuggets caught a break, however, when the agreed-upon format was revealed, featuring eight additional regular season games to determine seeding. As it stands, Denver has a second chance to create its own destiny.</p>
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<p>Now that several outcomes are possible, it’s time to scrutinize Western Conference opponents top-to-bottom, analyzing favorable and unfavorable matchups.</p>
<p>The Nuggets currently sit perched as the 3-seed, equally placed at 1.5 games behind the Clippers (presently in the 2-slot) and 1.5 games above the Utah Jazz (4th place). Denver’s only mathematic impossibility is falling below the 7-seed, so sharp play throughout the eight games is important.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers have all but secured the 1-seed, and they’re a common pick to win the title. The LA Clippers, barring extreme circumstances, won’t be Denver’s first-round opponent, as both squads should likely finish top-4. These <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"https://hoopshabit.com/2020/04/27/denver-nuggets-defeat-los-angeles-lakers/">Hollywood squads can be removed from the opening matchup</a> discussion.</p>
<p>The eighth seed is interesting, as the Memphis Grizzlies lead the way, yet find the Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings nipping at their heels. However, it’s nearly impossible for Denver to obtain the 1-seed, or for the 8-seed to move up, so let’s exclude these teams from the discussion as well.</p>
<p>This leaves a high probability that the Denver Nuggets face the Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder or Utah Jazz in the first round, as these squads jockey for the 4-7 spots. All four teams are within 2.5 games of each other, so anything could happen here. The Jazz hold a one-game lead on the Rockets and Thunder, who are tied at the fifth spot. Dallas trails the pair by 1.5 games, so they are less likely to jump everyone and obtain the 4-seed.</p>
<p>Which of these squads do the Nuggets match up well with? If late games determine positioning, will Denver want to coincidentally rest starters for *cough* injury-management purposes? Let’s examine potential first-round matchups, ranked by desirability, as we explore who the Denver Nuggets could face in the opening series:</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Utah Jazz </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-401120" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2133,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2020%2F06%2F1213535159.jpeg" alt="" width="3200" height="2133" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2020/06/1213535159.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2020/06/1213535159-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Denver Nuggets (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)</p>
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<h3>Utah Jazz:</h3>
<h5>Denver’s matchup desirability: 1st</h5>
<h5>Regular Season Record to date: 2-0</h5>
<h5>Projected Probability to win series: Denver 80/20</h5>
<h5>Nikola Jokic vs. team: 29.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, 10.0 assists per game</h5>
<h5>Jamal Murray vs. team: (1 game): 31 points, 4 assists</h5>
<h5>Biggest Problem Players: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert</h5>
<p>This matchup was already favorable for Denver, but now Utah has faced much adversity in recent months, as Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert each contracted Covid-19 and are rumored to be at odds with each other. The Jazz were a strong two-way team the last couple of seasons, but they may have a long road back to this point, unfortunately.</p>
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<p><a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jokicni01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 ref="nofollow">Nikola Jokic</a> made strides against Gobert this year, completely dominating the fellow All-Star in both matchups before play was suspended. Gobert’s length and athleticism had previously bothered Jokic, but he seems to have solved Gobert, averaging 29.0 points on 58.1 percent shooting against him.</p>
<p>Donovon Mitchell is strong and athletic, but at 6’1″ he’s the player archetype Denver’s stopper Gary Harris thrives against. Mitchell scored just five points on 0-13 shooting the last time Harris guarded him. Nuggets fans will be reminded why Garris makes the big bucks if he can take Mitchell out of the series.</p>
<p>Jamal Murray will have his hands full with savvy veteran Mike Conley, who joined Utah last summer in a splashy acquisition. Conley’s fit with the Jazz is questionable, however, as he’s notching just 13.8 points per contest, an eight-year low.</p>
<p>Denver has exposed Utah in a major way, and the Jazz are currently reeling from off-court issues. Consider this the Nuggets’ most favorable series.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Oklahoma City Thunder </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-393758" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2133,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1203413016.jpeg" alt="Denver Nuggets" width="3200" height="2133" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1203413016.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1203413016-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Denver Nuggets (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)</p>
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<h3>Oklahoma City Thunder:</h3>
<h5>Denver’s matchup desirability: 2nd</h5>
<h5>Regular Season Record to date: 1-1</h5>
<h5>Projected Probability to win series: Denver 75/25</h5>
<h5>Nikola Jokic vs. team: 30.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists per game</h5>
<h5>Jamal Murray vs. team: 17.5 points, 5.5 assists per game</h5>
<h5>Biggest Problem Players: Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schroeder</h5>
<p>The Oklahoma City Thunder are a strange story, as they blew up the squad last offseason, and were projected to occupy a spot near the Western Conference cellar. Nonetheless, they currently hold the fifth seed, due to a well-balanced revival of veterans and rise of young players.</p>
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<p>Chris Paul (17.7 points, 6.8 assists per game) may have lost a step, but he’s shown plenty in the tank, harnessing the best versions of his teammates. Former Nugget Danilo Gallinari (19.2 points per game) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (19.3 ppg) have enjoyed monster seasons alongside Paul. Off the bench, Dennis Schroeder (19.0 ppg) could cause problems, as the Nuggets don’t possess comparable second-unit scoring.</p>
<p>What Denver does have, however, is far-and-away the best player in the series in Jokic. He torched the Thunder in two games, averaging 30.0 points per contest on an insane 79.3 percent shooting (23-of-29 from the field). Denver also has defenders capable of limiting the Thunder’s scorers, as Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, Gary Harris and Torrey Craig should contain OKC’s collection of solid-but-not-superb attackers.</p>
<p>If Denver plays through Jokic offensively, while keeping the Thunder’s scorers in check on the stopping end, this is a very winnable series.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Dallas Mavericks </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-401121" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2133,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2020%2F06%2F1206312944.jpeg" alt="" width="3200" height="2133" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2020/06/1206312944.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2020/06/1206312944-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Denver Nuggets (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)</p>
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<h5><span style="color: inherit;font-family: Oswald, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 24px">Dallas Mavericks:</span></h5>
<h5>Denver’s matchup desirability: 3rd</h5>
<h5>Regular Season Record to date: 1-2</h5>
<h5>Projected Probability to win series: Denver 55/45</h5>
<h5>Nikola Jokic vs. team: 19.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists per game</h5>
<h5>Jamal Murray vs. team: 18.3 points, 3.7 assists per game</h5>
<h5>Biggest Problem Players: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis</h5>
<p>Now we’re approaching problem territory, as the Nuggets struggled with Dallas, finishing just 1-2 in these matchups. Luka Doncic has emerged as one of the NBA’s elite, averaging a monster 28.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game this season. Thanks to Doncic’s play, Dallas leads the NBA by a mile with a scorching 115.8 offensive rating.</p>
<p>Moreover, Jokic’s 19.0 points per game against Dallas is his lowest of the four possible opponents, as he’s appeared bothered by Kristaps Porzingis (2.1 blocks per game) and Maxi Kleber (1.2). Porzingis averages 19.2 points per game, so Jokic must also tend to him on the defensive end.</p>
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<p>There’s more than a little hope, however, as Dallas generally isn’t a great defensive team (110.0 defensive rating, 17th-best in NBA). Jokic is beefier than Porzingis and Kleber, so there’s a decent chance he solves Dallas’ shot-blockers, keeps them on his hip, and becomes a problem for the Mavs. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray has fared well in these games and could have a favorable matchup.</p>
<p>Another notable, the Nuggets held Doncic well below his average (22.3 points per game in three contests), and have a sturdy combination of on-ball and help-side defense to hassle him. Doncic will make his presence known, but Denver likely isn’t his first choice opponent.</p>
<p>Dallas is a sneaky-tough matchup for Denver, no question, and probably not an opponent the Nuggets want to target. However, Denver does have the tools to win the series if the standings break this way.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Houston Rockets </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-401122" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2020/06/10/denver-nuggets-ranking-opponents/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2133,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2020%2F06%2F1210240573.jpeg" alt="" width="3200" height="2133" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2020/06/1210240573.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2020/06/1210240573-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Denver Nuggets (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)</p>
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<h3>Houston Rockets:</h3>
<h5>Denver’s matchup desirability: 4th</h5>
<h5>Regular Season Record: 3-1</h5>
<h5>Projected Probability to win series: Houston 55/45</h5>
<h5>Nikola Jokic vs. team: 22.8 points, 11.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists per game</h5>
<h5>Jamal Murray vs. team (2 games): 11.0 points, 7.5 assists per game</h5>
<h5>Biggest Problem Players: James Harden, Russell Westbrook</h5>
<p>This was a close call between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks, as both are bad matchups for Denver, but ultimately James Harden tips the scales, as no higher-seeded squad wants to face him in the first round.</p>
<p>Owner of a 34.4 points per game average, Harden leads the league in scoring by a significant margin. He’s a master at the step-back 3, getting to the rack, and yes, playing 8-on-5 ball with the officials’ help. Russell Westbrook (27.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists per game) joins Harden to create the league’s best backcourt, one that would inevitably hurt Denver in a seven-game series.</p>
<p>Houston perhaps self-sabotaged with their “small-ball” experiment, trading center Clint Capela and employing a speedy, smooth-shooting lineup in which every player is 6’7” or shorter. The squad started out 7-2 after the trade, but then hit a losing streak to break at 8-6, so the jury is still out on the effectiveness of this method. The spread-out style and ability to draw the switch will be rough for Denver’s bigs, however.</p>
<p>While Houston’s offense is tricky to contain, Denver does have a significant size advantage. Nikola Jokic would be a man among boys and may average a 40-point triple-double on the series. He would control the offense via both scoring and facilitating, and Houston would have no answer. Paul Millsap would also accumulate post buckets, as he’d likely draw a 6’4” or 6’5” defender. Denver did post a 3-1 record against Houston, but one of these wins came with Harden sidelined.</p>
<p>Ultimately, this would be a series in which neither defense could contain the other’s offense, a.k.a head coach Mike Malone’s worst nightmare. Houston, on the other hand intentionally plays this style, so give them a slight edge.</p>
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