Forecasting the Oklahoma City Thunder at mid-season

Oklahoma City </a>Thunder this season, don’t beat yourself up about it. In fact, many Oklahomans haven’t either, as the team currently ranks last in leaguewide attendance. One of the most competitive franchises in recent memory is finally undergoing a rebuild, and make no mistake about it, it’s going to be a slow one.</p> <p>Over the past three seasons, GM Sam Presti has traded three Hall-of-Fame talents – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Chris Paul. The return from all of those transactions includes a single rising star, a few young prospects, and an insurmountable number of draft picks.</p> <h2>After a long competitive stretch, the Oklahoma City Thunder are undergoing a substantial rebuild. Halfway through its second season, what is the forecast of the current roster?</h2> <p>Presti has <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/29/forecasting-oklahoma-city-thunder/2/"https://fansided.com/2021/06/18/thunder-draft-picks-list-sam-presti/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">accumulated more than 35 future NBA draft picks</a> (19 being first-rounders) over the next seven years, essentially swapping All-NBA players for high school lowerclassmen, and in some cases, middle schoolers.</p> <p>It’s a remarkable achievement, but more of a confounding strategy. However, Presti has duly earned the right to experiment after drafting three MVPs in three consecutive seasons (without the aid of a number one overall pick I might add).</p> <p>Oklahoma City is playing the long game, and fans and spectators like you and I are now subject to some grotesque professional basketball. The Thunder are dead last in points per game (100.6), offensive rating (102.5), team field goal percentage (41.6%), team three-point percentage (31.1 percent), and assists per game (20.9).</p> <p>Obviously, the Thunder are lacking talent, going the route of stockpiling assets rather than building a decent rotation. And that strategy has rightfully positioned them as the NBA’s youngest team.</p> <p>Although the group is incredibly outmatched, they have avoided the league’s bottom three. 47 games in, a little beyond mid-season, the Thunder sit 14-33, tied for last-place with Rockets in the Western Conference, and a few wins ahead of the abysmal Pistons and Magic of the Eastern Conference.</p> <p>There are signs of optimism within the organization, starting with the fact the team has already constructed an average defense, something the lowly teams just mentioned surely can’t say.</p> <p>They are amazingly 13th in opponent points per game (107.9, one spot ahead of the defending champion Bucks), 14th in defensive rating (110.0), eighth in rebounds per game (45.8), and 16th in steals per game (7.4). It has lifted them to wins over Memphis, Denver, Toronto, and the LA Lakers (twice!).</p> <p>But the truer sign of optimism within the organization is that the front office has acquired legitimate building blocks. When Presti traded the franchise’s superstars Russell Westbrook and Paul George in the summer of 2019, the team netted back only one young player. A very bold strategy, but they hit on it. Presti has also found riches in the past few drafts and in the open player market.</p> <p>A year and a half into the Thunder’s rebuild, we’re beginning to see the future take shape. There are clear positives fans and spectators should be excited about, some blatant negatives we shouldn’t see much longer, and a handful of curiosities the jury is very much still out on.</p> <p>Let’s dive into the forecast of the Oklahoma City Thunder at the midway point of the 2021-22 season – the second year of their extensive rebuild back to the top.</p> <div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/29/forecasting-oklahoma-city-thunder/2/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Loud Cracks and Rain Drops </a> </div><!—pageview_candidate—><hr id="pagebreak"><div id="attachment_441093" class="wp-caption aligncenter"> <img class="wp-image-441093 size-full" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/29/forecasting-oklahoma-city-thunder/2/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2134,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1237556263.jpeg" alt="Forecasting the Oklahoma City Thunder at mid-season" width="3200" height="2134" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1237556263.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1237556263-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img"> <p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JANUARY 05: Josh Giddey #3 of the Oklahoma City Thunder gestures after scoring against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the fourth quarter at Target Center on January 5, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harrison Barden/Getty Images)</p> </div> </div> <h2>Forecasting the Oklahoma City Thunder at mid-season: The positives</h2> <p>Sam Presti and the Oklahoma City Thunder caught lightning in a bottle three times in three consecutive drafts when they selected Kevin Durant with the second overall pick in 2007, Russell Westbrook with the fourth overall pick in 2008, and James Harden with the third overall pick in 2009. During their three years together, the young trio put Oklahoma City on the map and clinched their first trip to the NBA Finals.</p> <p>Today, the Thunder still don’t have any championship banners, and they’re without all three of their MVP draft selections. There’s no guarantee the team will have the same superstar talent they once had in this new era, or ever again to be honest, yet they are already getting close with one of their returns.</p> <p>Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was manipulated the minute he arrived in the NBA, traded on Draft Night in 2018 by the Charlotte Hornets to the LA Clippers. They saw an opportunity to pry out picks from Michael Jordan’s team over the rights to Miles Bridges, using 6’6″ Gilgeous-Alexander as bait.</p> <p>Despite not being a top-10 selection, Gilgeous-Alexander led all rookies in games played (82) and was the only lottery pick to make the postseason, in which he started all six games at point guard for the Clippers. After his excellent freshman campaign, he was shipped off by the team he helped make a winner to the rebuilding Thunder, once again being the second piece in a trade.</p> <p>In his first year with Oklahoma City (the first for the Thunder without any of their MVP selections), “SGA” emerged as a dynamite shooting guard and sensational rebounder, joining forces with Chris Paul in the backcourt to amazingly keep the Thunder in the playoff picture.</p> <p>Knowing the team still intended to rebuild and Paul’s stock was red-hot, the Oklahoma City Thunder sent away his tag-team partner and made him the new focus of the team. In his second year with Oklahoma City, on a team with a far more depleted roster than before, Gilgeous-Alexander leveled up again as a lethal all-around scorer and impressive lead playmaker back at the point.</p> <p>SGA is no longer second fiddle to someone else’s violin. He’s a bonafide star and the future of the Thunder, earning a five-year, $173 million extension that finally puts his shuffling to rest. As alluded to before, Gilgeous-Alexander is the only active <em>young</em> player the Thunder received in exchange for Russell Westbrook and Paul George, and at just 23 years old, his stats closely resemble the latter he was directly traded for.</p> <p>He’s averaging 23.0 points and 5.5 assists to George’s 24.7 points and 5.5 assists, shooting 42.4 percent from the field and 28.2 percent from three-point range to George’s 42.1 percent from the field and 32.3 percent from three-point range and has a 53.3 percent true shooting percentage to George’s 52.8 percent, all while George is in the prime of his career.</p> <p>Oklahoma City has successfully recycled their superstars for an up-and-coming one, but of course, that’s not enough to rebuild with. There’s a second piece, only a rookie, handing the Thunder another striking positive for the future.</p> <p>Josh Giddey was this year’s international man of mystery. The golden child of Australia making a quick leap to the NBA. Taken with the sixth selection in this past year’s NBA Draft, Giddey was viewed by many as a developmental project, fitting the timeline of the Thunder’s very long rebuild. However, the Aussie has very quickly won over the hearts of Thunder fans and received praise from spectators like myself.</p> <p>A long facilitator at 6-8, he has the frame of a small forward, produces like a point guard, and contributes as a highly-effective shooting guard next to SGA. Giddey is not only agile, but an aggressive rebounder, too, pulling down 7.4 per game.</p> <p>And he’s not only brilliant, but a magical passer sending out 6.2 assists per game, which would be even higher if he wasn’t on the NBA’s youngest and worst offense. To top it off, he’s a crafty slasher, juking past guards with stop-motion drives and reaching around big men with long-armed layups.</p> <p>It looks as though Giddey could become the point guard and Gilgeous-Alexander could flip back to shooting guard, allowing the former to use his unique size and skill-set for playmaking, and the latter to focus on scoring and defending opposing backcourts. The two form a very talented and tough-to-handle tandem to lead the rebuild, yet there are a few more contributors worth mentioning as foundational pieces.</p> <p>The first is Luguentz Dort – a high-scoring wing who spaces the floor and battles opposing stars in the “Dorture Chamber”. He hasn’t performed efficiently (career 39.2 percent from the field) and he’s undersized for his role (only 6-3). However, he has not shied away from a starring role, and brings very important tenacity to the lineup, likely the main reason the team is already an average defense.</p> <p>The second is Tre Mann – a long and energetic point guard who can get to the rim in a flash but also shoot threes off the dribble. He’s operated as a sixth man who can create offense (7.0 points per game in 17.1 minutes per game) and shorten deficits with the long ball (36.1 percent from deep), making for a nice backup to the starring Gilgeous-Alexander.</p> <p>The third is Kenrich Williams – formerly a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none but now a reliable and skilled rotation player. He limits negative plays (45.5 percent from the field and 0.8 turnovers per game), hits open shots (38.2 percent from deep), and lifts his unit through hustle (4.1 rebounds and 0.9 steals per game), making things easier for the young Oklahoma City Thunder team.</p> <p>The two cornerstones, the third starter, and the two reserves forecast as clear positives for the Oklahoma City Thunder moving forward. They’ve shown flashes of greatness, often show up on the stat sheet, and make winning plays in a lineup destined to fail. In short stints with the team, they’re providing loud cracks of thunder and bringing the rainfall.</p> <div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/29/forecasting-oklahoma-city-thunder/2/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> A Weak Cast of Stormtroopers </a> </div><!—pageview_candidate—><hr id="pagebreak"><div id="attachment_441113" class="wp-caption aligncenter"> <img class="wp-image-441113 size-full" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/29/forecasting-oklahoma-city-thunder/2/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2133,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1360735307.jpeg" alt="Forecasting the Oklahoma City Thunder at mid-season" width="3200" height="2133" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1360735307.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1360735307-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img"> <p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">PHOENIX, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 23: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns drives the ball past Darius Bazley #7 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half of the NBA game at Footprint Center on December 23, 2021 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Thunder 113-101. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)</p> </div> </div> <h2>Forecasting the Oklahoma City Thunder at mid-season: The negatives</h2> <p>The small-market and star-driven Oklahoma City Thunder have systematically built their roster year after year, and this next rebuild will be no different, acquiring talent through the draft and free agents who’ve slipped through the cracks.</p> <p>Presti and his team are credited with finding pieces that complemented their MVP talents and shaped OKC as a contender. This includes Reggie Jackson in 2011, Steven Adams and Andre Roberson in 2013, and Enes Freedom (formerly Kanter) in 2015.</p> <p>A remarkable foundation had been built so all those players could develop at their own pace, benefitting alongside the brilliance of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, not to mention Serge Ibaka, too.</p> <p>This current group of prospects isn’t afforded the same luxury, forced to produce quickly with heavier minutes. However, it has allowed management to separate its roster early on between the rebuild must-keeps and the rebuild must-leaves.</p> <p>Darius Bazley is the first must-leave that comes to mind. Once a five-star high school recruit who was the first major prospect to bypass college basketball in order to play in the G-League, a decision he later voided when he signed on as a New Balance intern.</p> <p>In what was supposed to be his freshman campaign at Syracuse, Bazley spent the 2018-19 season preparing for the draft on his own, wowing scouts enough to be selected 23rd overall by the Jazz before finally landing in Oklahoma City after some trades.</p> <p>Coming into the league at 6-8, he was an athletic power forward who found most comfort spacing the floor. And he was impressive as a rookie in his lone playoff appearance in the Orlando bubble.</p> <p>Earning a much bigger role coming into his second season, he started all his games at power forward as a critical piece in the Thunder’s rebuild, but against much stiffer competition, he crumbled.</p> <p>In 31.2 minutes over 55 starts, Bazley shot 39.6 percent from the field on 12.5 shot attempts per game, 29.0 percent from three-point range on 5.2 attempts per game, and saw a surprising dip his shot-blocking numbers as they fell from 0.7 to 0.5 per game.</p> <p>It’s a major adjustment going from playing in a Chris Paul offense as a rookie to then having a leading role on one of the worst and youngest teams in basketball, so this third season was another chance to prove himself.</p> <p>Through 42 games in 2021-22, Bazley is playing even worse, lowering his field goal percentage to 38.8 percent, his three-point percentage to 26.0 percent, and his scoring from an inefficient 13.7 points per game to an even more abysmal 8.8 points per game.</p> <p>Bazley still looks very raw offensively, hasn’t made strides defensively apart from some blocked shots, has no fluidity in his jump shooting, hasn’t improved his three-point shooting, and the coaching staff has lost confidence that he can remain in the starting lineup.</p> <p>Even though Bazley is only 21 years old, Oklahoma City knows he’s miles away from being a foundational piece for a rebuilding team. This was best illustrated by the fact that his best year was in a reserve role on a winning team. A player without any college or G-League development is going to continue struggling on a very bad team, and he’s not the only player the team would be wise to move on from.</p> <p>Isaiah Roby made a name for himself at Nebraska as an athletic big man and tenacious shot-blocker. He was a late second-round pick finding his way to the Dallas Mavericks before being shipped out during his rookie year to Oklahoma City.</p> <p>Roby came onto the scene in his second year, starting about half his games at center for the newly rebuilding Oklahoma City Thunder. He was a decent inside finisher but mostly a strong rebounder at only 6-8.</p> <p>Now in his third season, Roby has been ousted by steady rookie Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, but while his shooting has improved, I’m not sure he’s a real piece moving forward. He hasn’t done anything to show that he can’t be a meaningful player, yet he appears to be an undersized center who’s not all that great shooting outside the paint.</p> <p>On a team increasingly desperate for easier baskets and length in the frontcourt, I believe Roby’s minutes would be best utilized elsewhere, like on Robinson-Earl and experienced big men, and management seems to be trending in that direction, too, with Roby exiting the starting lineup.</p> <div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/29/forecasting-oklahoma-city-thunder/2/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Shades of Grey </a> </div><!—pageview_candidate—><hr id="pagebreak"><div id="attachment_441153" class="wp-caption aligncenter"> <img class="wp-image-441153 size-full" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/29/forecasting-oklahoma-city-thunder/2/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2133,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1345914633.jpeg" alt="Forecasting the Oklahoma City Thunder at mid-season" width="3200" height="2133" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1345914633.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1345914633-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img"> <p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 10: Aleksej Pokusevski #17 of the Oklahoma City Thunder dribbles the ball against Jordan Nwora #13 of the Milwaukee Bucks in the second half during a preseason game at Fiserv Forum on October 10, 2021 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)</p> </div> </div> <h2>Forecasting the Oklahoma City Thunder at mid-season: The curiosities</h2> <p>The best part about a rebuild for organizations is that they get to experiment with little restrictions and virtually no rush. It creates opportunities for fans to dream about the future and decide which players they’re going to be invested in, while at the same time creating opportunities for spectators to evaluate young talent and say which players deserve more chances.</p> <p>In the previous regime, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant accelerated the Thunder’s rebuild and put deadlines on developing players, causing management to cut ties with players like Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones in order to redistribute those minutes to players like Dion Waiters and Anthony Morrow.</p> <p>This new regime will be building at a much slower rate, affording lots of opportunities for intriguing young prospects. Any fan, spectator, or member of the organization has the right to their own opinion on whether these talents should be in for the long haul.</p> <p>The first one that comes to mind is Ty Jerome – a point guard of the 2019 National Champion Virginia Cavaliers. A highly-touted prospect and first-round pick, Jerome has great size for a playmaker at 6-5, has the upper-body muscle to attack the basket often, and is an impressive three-point shooter given his penetrating skills.</p> <p>In his first year with OKC, playing roughly half the season, Jerome was spectacular, averaging 10.7 points and 3.6 assists per game while shooting 42.3 percent from three-point range on more than half of his overall shot attempts. But in his second year in the same reserve role, Jerome has taken a dive, averaging only 1.7 assists per game (in eight fewer minutes) and shooting 28.4 percent from three-point range.</p> <p>The Virginia product has proven he can lead on a winning team and has been impressive when he gets a bigger role. The only question is whether the team should be patient through his inefficiencies when they already have two leading guards and just invested in a younger, more explosive Tre Mann with their first-round pick.</p> <p>The second one I’m throwing out there is Theo Maledon – a point guard who made a name for himself in France. An early second-round pick in 2020, Maledon moves great for his size at 6-4, is fearless as a sub-21-year-old, and has shown the ability to make much-needed baskets.</p> <p>In his first year with OKC, starting nearly all of his games, Maledon showed out in 27.4 minutes per game averaging 10.1 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.2 rebounds while shooting 33.5 percent on 4.8 three-point attempts.</p> <p>But in his second year, shoved onto the bench, Maledon has been one of the worst players in the league, shooting a horrific 28.2 percent from the field and 18.2 percent from three-point range (where most of his shooting stems from).</p> <p>The Frenchman looked like a steal as a 19-year-old second-round pick, but now he looks broken without the ball in his hands. There are clearly more polished playmakers on the roster, including the name mentioned above, so should Oklahoma City capitalize on his big rookie season, or should they respect his early production and try to transition him into a shooting guard?</p> <p>The third one everyone has been waiting for me to mention is Aleksej Pokusevski – a Serbian big man who dropped the jaws of NBA scouts. A first-round pick in 2020, “Poku” floats around like a guard at 7-0, swats away inside shots at only 195 lbs., and makes eye-popping plays handling the ball and attacking the rim.</p> <p>In his first year with OKC, starting about half of his games, Poku looked very out of place early on before finding some rhythm. He averaged 8.2 points and 4.7 rebounds shooting only 34.1 percent from the field. And now, in his second year, mainly coming off the bench, Poku hasn’t improved his efficiency, only leaping to 35.8 percent from the field and a now lower 23.0 percent from three-point range.</p> <p>The Serbian’s statistics are pitiful, resembling recent international busts. However, he’s the definition of a project and still opens eyes as a 20-year-old freak of nature.</p> <p>There’s very little risk to continue playing a first-round pick who, at 7-0, has shown the ability to penetrate off-the-dribble, make flashy passes, and protect the rim. But how long will Oklahoma City let the Poku experiment continue, and will they make him a key ingredient of the team’s future?</p> <div class="fs-shortcode" data-type="StoryLink" data-theme="dark" data-text="OKC Thunder rookie watch at the halfway point of the season" data-url="https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/18/oklahoma-city-thunder-rookie-watch/" data-call-to-action="Next"> <div class="story-link-next"> <a class="story-link-next-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="story-link-next-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/29/forecasting-oklahoma-city-thunder/2/"https://hoopshabit.com/2022/01/18/oklahoma-city-thunder-rookie-watch/"> <span class="call_to_action">Next:</span> OKC Thunder rookie watch at the halfway point of the season </a> </div> </div><!—pageview_candidate—>">