Starting Obi Toppin is not the answer for the New York Knicks

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 30: Obi Toppin #1 of the New York Knicks reacts during close game against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on November 30, 2021 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michelle Farsi/Getty Images)

There is a perception around the league that the New York Knicks should consider starting Obi Toppin to see if they can turn their season around. Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post wrote on December 6th that New York should start Toppin alongside Julius Randle to see if that pairing gives the team a boost.

At first glance, starting this pairing appears to be a good idea, as the team has outscored opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions whenever they are on the floor together. However, when you look beneath the surface, starting this pairing might not be ideal, as Toppin would have to be in a role that would highlight his biggest weakness – shooting.

Putting Obi Toppin in the New York Knicks starting lineup with Julius Randle would put a greater spotlight on his weakness – shooting

This season, the team’s favorite offensive set has been the pick and roll. They spend 21.3 percent of their possessions in this offensive see. This currently ranks fourth in the league, averaging 23.3 per game over their first 26 appearances.

When New York is in the pick and roll, they usually like to have three shooters surrounding the pick and roll ball handler and roll man. Consequently, when Julius Randle and Obi Toppin are on the floor together, one of them usually has to play the role of floor-spacer/three-point shooter.

Toppin has only converted 26.7 percent of his attempts from deep in 88 professional games (on 1.5 shots per game). He has a greater propensity to indulge in his weakness when he is on the floor with Randle.

The duo of Randle and Toppin has averaged 4.5 minutes per game in 20 appearances together. More than 50 percent of the minutes on the floor together have come in the fourth quarter, as they average 2.8 per game in 13 fourth-quarter appearances.

In the fourth quarter, their playing time together has contributed to Toppin taking 0.9 threes in that particular stanza this season – 50 percent of his total threes. Toppin has struggled to make his threes in the fourth quarter, shooting 30.4 percent.

If the New York Knicks want Obi Toppin to keep having success, they need to put him closer to the basket, as he has makes 70.8 percent of his shots in the restricted area this season on 4.1 attempts per game. He has averaged 5.8 points in the restricted area – 66.7 percent of his scoring output.

The team can get Toppin into the restricted area in multiple ways – a roll man or a cutter. Toppin has shot 46.4 percent from the field as a roll man during his time as a professional on 0.5 shots per game.

He has averaged 0.65 points as a roll man during his professional career. Toppin has been able to supplement his success as a roll man by cutting to the basket. Toppin has shot 76.4 percent as a cutter on 0.7 shots per game, averaging 1.2 points.

However, if the Knicks accentuate the strengths of Toppin, it will force Randle into the role of floor-spacer. Randle hasn’t thrived in this role throughout his career, shooting 34.1 percent from behind the arc on 2.3 shots per game.

Consequently, Toppin and Randle shouldn’t play together for extended periods, as the team wouldn’t be able to accentuate both of their strengths.