Will Joel Embiid and James Harden be affected by playoff whistle?

PHILADELPHIA, PA – MARCH 14: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers talks with James Harden #1 against the Denver Nuggets at the Wells Fargo Center on March 14, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Nuggets defeated the 76ers 114-110. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

If “You Know Ball”, you know that in addition to being mega-talented in nearly every facet of the game, James Harden and Joel Embiid are the best in the world at everyone’s least favorite facet – drawing fouls.

Since joining forces, Harden and Embiid have managed to grift a combined average of 25 free throw attempts per game. That figure dwarfs the next closest average this season for a duo of teammates (16.1 FTA per game from the Bucks’ Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo).

Will Joel Embiid and James Harden be affected by playoff whistle?

Now, we’re using the term “grift” intending nothing but respect – Joel Embiid and James Harden largely earn their free throws by being impossible to guard. Embiid is so strong and quick that defenders have no choice but to foul if they want a chance of slowing him down, while Harden’s shiftiness keeps defenders off-balance, and his sudden stops and starts catch defenders in the wrong place at the wrong time.

They do their fair share of flopping, but in the NBA, who doesn’t?

Since the Harden trade, the new-look Philadelphia 76ers have looked fantastic, aside from a beatdown at the hands of Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets in Ben Simmons’ return to the Philadelphia sideline. But with enough talent to make the Finals this year, could Embiid and Harden living at the line be a detriment come playoff time?

Figuring out what constitutes a foul in the NBA requires an understanding that it depends on a lot of factors it probably shouldn’t depend on.

Who was fouled? Who committed the foul? Are they in foul trouble? How much time is left in the game? What’s the score? Did I just call a bad foul the other way?

And, the most noticeable factor, is it the playoffs?

NBA referees notoriously swallow their whistles as soon as the playoffs start. It makes for a better product – teams are playing harder defense, offenses have to work harder for buckets, and flopping is ignored a little bit more.

It sounds better in theory, but it’s a little annoying to see blatant inconsistency in how fouls are called. Just watch any playoff game called by Jeff Van Gundy and you’ll hear a rant about it.

Interestingly, though, this is somewhat of a misconception. Teams shoot an average of 23.54 free throws per 100 possessions in the playoffs, compared to 21.87 per 100 possessions in the regular season. A slight increase in the postseason!

Of course, this doesn’t make fans and Jeff Van Gundy wrong. By the eye test, viewers can see more fouls occurring per game in the playoffs, and if NBA referees released a last-two-minute report that covered all of every game, we would probably see them admit to a lot more no-calls in the playoffs.

But let’s bring this back to Harden and Embiid. Does a rise in no-calls spell trouble for Philly’s star duo?

In truth, probably not. Statistically, there isn’t any real evidence that no-calls hurt the duo’s scoring. In each of the past three playoffs, both players have seen their FTA either increase or only drop by less than half of an attempt. The same can be said when comparing their PPG between the regular and postseason – no more than a half-point drop-off.

In addition, Harden and Embiid may be the most suited players in the league to play through fouls. The two draw the most fouls in the entire NBA over the course of the regular season. Wouldn’t that give them an advantage when the playoffs come? They had a whole season to practice against playoff-level fouling.

Harden and Embiid give the 76ers their best chance in years of making it out of the East. If the Sixers fall short this postseason, it won’t be because of their Grift & Grind duo.