Predicting the Chicago Bulls' starting five for the 2022-23 season

[caption id="attachment_445025" align="aligncenter" width="3200"] Chicago Bulls starters Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan&amp; Nikola Vucevic (David Banks-USA TODAY Sports)[/caption]rnrn'Bittersweet' would best describe the Chicago Bulls' 2021-22 season. While the team finally returned to the postseason after a four-year absence, injuries derailed a team that seemed like it was on the path to a top seed in the Eastern Conference. However, the team came upon a tough matchup and it sputtered to a first-round exit against the Milwaukee Bucks.rnrnSo, what did the Bulls do to follow up last season's renaissance? Well, they did re-sign All-Star wing Zach LaVine to a max contract. Then, they...signed Andre Drummond and Goran Dragic. Oh, and the team is also reportedly hoping to reach an extension with center Nikola Vuu010deviu0107.rnrnScintillating stuff.rn Even with their relative inactivity this offseason, the Chicago Bulls still boast a solid roster that's capable of qualifying for the 2023 postseason. rnIt's clear that the Bulls are hinging their 2022-23 hopes on better injury luck and the further development of their younger players (if GarPax were still in charge, they'd say "it's just like making a big trade" or something). It's fair to wonder if that strategy will pay off in an Eastern Conference that saw several teams improve their rosters.rnrnThat said, there's still enough talent on this roster to make another playoff push. The strength of the potential starting lineup alone is enough to buoy them in a choppy East.rnrn[nextslide teaser="Point%20Guard" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_443077" align="aligncenter" width="3200"] Chicago Bulls, Alex Caruso (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)[/caption]rn Chicago Bulls projected starting point guard: Alex Caruso rnWith so much uncertainty surrounding Lonzo Ball's recovery from knee surgery, the Bulls could turn to either veteran guard Alex Caruso, second-year incumbent Ayo Dosunmu, or the perpetually frustrating Coby White. In theory, Dragic could start for this team, but let's hope things don't come to that.rnrnCaruso's pliability with Chicago's other star players should give him the inside track to crack the starting lineup. Last year, the former Texas A&amp;M Aggie produced positive net ratings when sharing the floor with DeMar DeRozan (plus-9.9), Zach LaVine (plus-1.0), and Vuu010deviu0107 (plus-0.5), with much of that value coming via his pestering defense (+2.1 defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, 94th percentile).rnrnhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qbWxWxJEigrnrnCaruso doesn't offer much on offense outside of the occasional shrewd cut (1.42 points per possession on 0.6 cuts per game, per Synergy) and his sturdy screens (75th percentile in BBall Index's Screening Talent metric [subscription required]), but his willingness to aggravate whoever the Bulls need him to on defense covers for whatever he doesn't provide on the other end.rnrnChicago will need him to do that again this year — especially if Ball isn't ready for the start of the season.rnrn[nextslide teaser="Shooting%20Guard" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_444932" align="aligncenter" width="3200"] Chicago Bulls, Zach LaVine (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)[/caption]rn Chicago Bulls projected starting shooting guard: Zach LaVine rnThis one is a no-brainer. LaVine is coming off of a season in which he averaged 24.4 points per game on 60.5 percent true shooting, and EPM viewed him as one of the league's best offensive players (96th percentile). This earned him his second straight All-Star appearance in February and a $215.2 million max contract in July.rnrnA tremendous athlete who uses those gifts to propel his three-level scoring (though his mid-range efficiency dipped significantly last year), LaVine continued to leverage the gravity he creates as a scorer (95th percentile in Box Creation) to create opportunities for his teammates (94th percentile in potential assists per 100 passes).rnrnEven though LaVine isn't at LeBron James, Luka Doncic, or Trae Young's level as a passer, he can make the obvious reads that the extra attention sent his way opens up.rnrnThere are fewer nice things to say about LaVine's defense. For a while, many considered him to be one of the worst wing defenders in the league, but he has improved over the last couple of seasons. Still, he's a liability on this end of the floor and head coach Billy Donovan will have to hide him, a task that becomes harder without Lonzo Ball.rnrn[nextslide teaser="Small%20Forward" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_444107" align="aligncenter" width="3200"] Chicago Bulls, DeMar DeRozan. USA TODAY Sports[/caption]rn Chicago Bulls projected starting small forward: DeMar DeRozan rnLike LaVine, DeMar DeRozan's place in the starting lineup is a formality. The 13-year veteran is a few months removed from his best season as a pro, setting career highs in points per game (27.9), making his fifth All-Star team, and being a darkhorse MVP candidate for most of the year (he ultimately finished tied for 10th in the voting).rnrnSome fans and analysts questioned the Bulls' decision to sign DeRozan, but the applause after every game-winner and every pump-fake that sent DeRozan to the free throw line drowned out those critiques. Now, these same folks will question whether he can replicate that success.rnrnCan DeRozan shoot 49 percent from mid-range again? Will he make 51 percent of his shots from between 10-16 feet again? Do you think he can hit 35.2 percent of his 3's? We won't know these answers until the season starts, but even if his production dips, he's good enough around the rim (67 percent between 0-3 feet) to split the difference. And he's developed into a great facilitator (99th percentile in potential assists per 100 passes).rnrnLike his All-Star wing-mate LaVine, though, his defense (18th percentile in BBall Index's on-ball defense metric) is a concern.rnrn[nextslide teaser="Power%20Forward" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_445842" align="aligncenter" width="3200"] Chicago Bulls, Patrick Williams. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports[/caption]rn Chicago Bulls projected power forward: Patrick Williams rnNow in his third season out of Florida State, combo wing Patrick Williams has become a Schrodinger's Cat-esque player for the Bulls. Because he only appeared in 17 games last year thanks to a wrist injury, so much of what he offers remains in the "potential" folder.rnrnWe've seen snapshots of what Williams can do -- most notably a 35-point game in the season finale against the Minnesota Timberwolves -- but those glimpses also come with far too many moments when he passes up quality looks on offense (22nd percentile in usage rate).rnrnhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ClEweEXuskrnrnWith DeRozan and LaVine on the roster (not to mention Vuu010deviu0107), no one expects Williams to turn into the primary option on offense (unless those players succumb to injury), but the Bulls hope that Williams at least becomes a less-timid shooter (especially with the lack of spacing this team has) while his defense continues to develop.rnrnWhile his metrics have varied in that area -- Box Plus/Minus viewed him as a net positive on defense while metrics like RAPTOR and LEBRON did not -- Williams still profiles as a solid, switchable wing defender who should alleviate some of LaVine and DeRozan's guarding responsibilities.rnrn[nextslide teaser="Center" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_437078" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Nikola Vucevic, Chicago Bulls. Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images[/caption]rn Chicago Bulls projected center: Nikola Vuu010deviu0107 rnIn hindsight, sending multiple first-round picks (one of which turned into Franz Wagner) and Wendell Carter for Nikola Vuu010deviu0107 doesn't look like the best deal.rnrnTo be fair, Vuu010deviu0107 didn't have a terrible season; he averaged a double-double (17.6 PPG, 11.0 RPG) and EPM was pretty bullish on his offense (plus-0.2, 71st percentile) and defense (plus-0.5, 74th percentile), but his subpar efficiency (53.3 true shooting percentage), inability to get to the foul line (10.5 free throw attempt percentage) and his lack of defensive versatility (15th percentile in BBall Index's on-ball defense metric) cause this feeling of buyers remorse among the fanbase.rnrnOf course, none of this will matter if Vuu010deviu0107 shoots better than 31.4 percent from 3 and increases his effectiveness as a screener (93rd percentile in screen assists per 75, but 25th percentile in PPP as the roll man). It would also make his already-good pairings with LaVine and DeRozan (both pick-and-roll tandems average 1.13 PPP) even better.rnrn[story_link_next description="Can%20DeMar%20sustain%20his%20production%20for%20the%20Bulls%3F" url="https://hoopshabit.com/2022/08/07/demar-derozan-sustain-chicago-bulls/" /]rnrnIf we get a repeat of last year, though, it will curtail any plans the Bulls have to advance past the quarterfinals.

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Predicting the Chicago Bulls’ starting five for the 2022-23 season

Chicago Bulls projected starting shooting guard: Zach LaVine

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