Chicago Bulls: Three reasons for optimism in the second half of the season

Chicago Bulls</a> this year.</p> <p>Prior to the season, many projections predicted this team to, at best, hover around 30 wins again, but to the surprise of many fans and people who cover the game, the Bulls have exhibited a level of competence that seemed unfathomable a season ago.</p> <p>Yes, a 15-18 record isn’t worth jumping for joy over, in a vacuum, and sure, their easy first-half slate has buoyed them early on — they’re tied with the New York Knicks and the Houston Rockets for the second lightest strength of schedule in the NBA — but given how bleak things have looked throughout this rebuild, this is an encouraging bit of hope, even if a playoff berth still looks unlikely.</p> <p>Even if Chicago’s postseason chances seem slim, this team has flashed enough skill to keep fans optimistic about making those hopes a reality this year while keeping fans excited for the future. There are plenty of examples that can support this, but for now, let’s limit it to the top three reasons for optimism in the second half of the season.</p> <div class="fs-shortcode" data-type="StoryLink" data-theme="light" data-text="NBA Trade Deadline: Shooters teams should target" data-url="https://hoopshabit.com/2021/02/27/2021-nba-trade-deadline-5-shooters/" data-call-to-action="Related Story"> <div class="story-link-related"> <a class="story-link-related-btn" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="story-link-related-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"https://hoopshabit.com/2021/02/27/2021-nba-trade-deadline-5-shooters/"> <span class="call_to_action">Related Story:</span> NBA Trade Deadline: Shooters teams should target </a> </div> </div> <h2>3. The Chicago Bulls’ improved, easy-to-watch offense</h2> <p>When watching the 2020-21 Chicago Bulls, the biggest thing that jumps out is how much more effective and telegenic their offense looks compared to the last two seasons.</p> <p>Bulls writer Stephen Noh <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"https://stephnoh.substack.com/p/how-billy-donovan-is-fixing-the-bulls" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dove into this</a> earlier this year, but in case you don’t want to click on that embedded link, here’s the Spark Notes version: under Jim Boylen, the Bulls offense often resembled someone attempting to drive a Ferrari without an engine, but new coach Billy Donovan’s emphasis on taking what the defense gives you has repaired much of those problems.</p> <p>Much of that rests with Donovan’s understanding of analytics not being akin to that time Michael Bay made a bad movie about Pearl Harbor because he wanted his version of <em>Titanic</em>. As a result, open looks are no longer ignored simply for “not being the right shot” and it has led to more fruitful results.</p> <p>Case in point: Chicago’s scoring attack has gone from being 3.9 points per 100 possessions behind the league average last year to 0.1 this year.</p> <p>Is this still a flawed offense? Absolutely. Among other things, they still surrender too many giveaways (third-most turnovers per 100 possessions in the league) and don’t get to the free throw line enough (only the Suns average fewer trips to the charity stripe per 100 possessions). But they do enough things well to keep you entertained, even if it comes with the aforementioned gaffes.</p> <div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> No. 2 </a> </div><!—pageview_candidate—><hr id="pagebreak"><div id="attachment_412360" class="wp-caption aligncenter"> <img class="size-full wp-image-412360" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2066,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1197977901.jpeg" alt="" width="3200" height="2066" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1197977901.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1197977901-768x496.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img"> <p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Chicago Bulls (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)</p> </div> </div> <h2>2. Lauri Markkanen returning to the Chicago Bulls after the All-Star break</h2> <p>Heading into a contract year, this was Lauri Markkanen’s last chance to realize the potential many people thought he would attain, and in the 14 games he’s played this year, it looked like he <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"https://hoopshabit.com/2021/02/02/chicago-bulls-lauri-markkanen-might-onto-something/">finally turned a corner</a>, at least until he injured his shoulder.</p> <p>Markkanen hasn’t played since Feb. 5 against the Orlando Magic and isn’t expected back until at least after the All-Star intermission. Whenever his return happens, he will be a welcome sight for his teammates and the fans.</p> <p>Before getting hurt, Markannen put up a career-high 29.8 points per 100 possessions with a 65.4 true shooting percentage. Advanced metrics are high on his offense, too: his 1.1 offensive Estimated Plus/Minus (EPM) ranks in the 81st percentile despite the time he’s missed.</p> <p>Powering this uptick in value is his proficiency at the rim; he’s shooting 71 percent at the rim, which places him in the 92nd percentile and, to further focus that scope, he’s making 80.9 percent of his shots inside of three feet. Oh, and that smooth shooting stroke is finally producing better than league-average results from 3-point range (39.6 percent on 7.2 attempts per game), especially from the corners (58.3 percent).</p> <p>His defense still leaves plenty to be desired (-0.8 defensive EPM; 30th percentile), but like Zach LaVine, it’s not bad enough to point to him as the primary issue with Chicago’s improving-but-still-sketchy numbers on that end (0.4 points per 100 worse than the league average).</p> <p>All in all, the Bulls have benefitted from Markkanen’s improvements, and they probably can’t wait to see him back on the court.</p> <div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> No. 1 </a> </div><!—pageview_candidate—><hr id="pagebreak"><div id="attachment_423628" class="wp-caption aligncenter"> <img class="size-full wp-image-423628" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_1067,w_1600/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1207757303.jpeg" alt="NBA" width="1600" height="1067" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1207757303.jpeg 1600w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1207757303-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px"><div class="fs-center-img"> <p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">Chicago Bulls Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images</p> </div> </div> <h2>1. Zach LaVine’s continued ascent as a star for the Chicago Bulls</h2> <p>After three-and-a-half seasons, <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"https://hoopshabit.com/2021/02/21/chicago-bulls-what-more-does-an-all-star-berth-require-from-lavine/">it has finally happened</a>: Zach LaVine will represent the Bulls as an All-Star.</p> <p>As far as scoring goes, not much has changed for the former UCLA Bruin: he ranks eighth in points per 100 (37.9) and 14th among qualified players in true shooting percentage (64.9 percent). However, few expected him to make the jump he did as a playmaker.</p> <p>Prior to this year, LaVine earned a reputation for doing two things when the time came to pass to a teammate: make a poor read for an easy steal or a bad pass for the same result. But thanks to Billy Donovan’s streamlined offense, the reads are easier, and to LaVine’s credit, he’s making defenses pay for any openings they present, as his 23.5 percent assist rate shows.</p> <p>Most impressive, however, is his improved defense. Stephen Noh recently <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"https://stephnoh.substack.com/p/is-zach-lavine-a-terrible-defender" target="_blank" rel="noopener">went into painstaking detail</a> discussing LaVine’s improvements as a defender, specifically noting his heightened engagement as a help defender and in rotating, which were his weakest areas on that end of the floor.</p> <p>Consequently, LaVine has become negligible on defense; his -0.5 Defensive EPM is nothing to gush over in the macro, but the 41st percentile sounds a lot better than “one of the worst perimeter defenders in the NBA”.</p> <p>Add that together, and you have someone who has become a legitimate franchise centerpiece, and it will be fun watching LaVine continue on that trajectory in the second half of the season.</p> <div class="fs-shortcode" data-type="StoryLink" data-theme="dark" data-text="NBA: 30 most unguardable moves in league history" data-url="https://hoopshabit.com/2021/02/27/nba-unguardable-moves-league-history/" data-call-to-action="Next"> <div class="story-link-next"> <a class="story-link-next-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="story-link-next-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/03/03/chicago-bulls-3-reasons-optimism/2/"https://hoopshabit.com/2021/02/27/nba-unguardable-moves-league-history/"> <span class="call_to_action">Next:</span> NBA: 30 most unguardable moves in league history </a> </div> </div><!—pageview_candidate—>">