Chicago Bulls: Can Daniel Gafford become an upper-tier rim protector?

Defensively, Chicago Bulls rookie Daniel Gafford by-and-large excelled as a rim protector. Can the team expect that level of production going forward?

When it comes to NBA defense, two archetypes stand out as the most valuable: stretchy wings who can guard multiple positions and big men who acquit themselves well enough on the perimeter and fend off penetrators at the rim.

Of those two, Chicago Bulls rookie center Daniel Gafford fits firmly in the latter category. Though no one would recognize the former Arkansas Razorback as at the level of a player like Rudy Gobert or Joel Embiid when it comes to repelling shots in the paint, he has become one of the better centers in the league in that area.

In general, the Bulls were better off defensively when Gafford is on the floor. Chicago’s defensive rating dropped by 2.7 points per 100 possessions with him in the lineup and his 0.66 Defensive Real Plus/Minus, 1.1 Player Impact Plus/Minus and 1.5 Box Plus/Minus show that he didn’t merely coast while sharing the court with good defenders.

Specifically, Gafford ranked in the 82nd percentile in defending the roll man on ball screens, averaged 4.4 blocks per 100 possessions. This would’ve placed him third in the NBA had he played enough minutes to qualify. Opponents shot only 50.8 percent from inside six feet (62 percent is league average) against him.

As you would expect, Gafford’s 7’2” inch wingspan helps him stand tall against drives like this:

And when he isn’t sending shots back, his looming presence forces players settle for a lower percentage shot, as we see Gordon Hayward do here:

This defensive success comes with some red flags. The small sample size is the most obvious concern. Gafford missed 22 games and even when he played, he only averaged 14.5 minutes a game. Taking a closer look at the shots he surrendered raises just as much alarm.

Regularized Adjusted Deterrence (RAD), a metric that measures the type of shots a team surrenders when a player is on the floor, ranked Gafford in the 59th percentile. For perspective, Embiid and Gobert — the standard-bearers of rim protection — rank in the 100th and 93rd percentiles, respectively. Even a big like Dwight Powell, who is more comparable to Gafford, defensively, cracked the 73rd percentile.

The main issue with Gafford’s deterrence lies in the abundance of corner threes and shots inside the paint and restricted area he allows. You could attribute most of that to players foolishly testing him at the rim and the Bulls’ team-wide struggles with paint disruption — they conceded the fifth-most shots inside the restricted area, the sixth-most left corner threes, and the eighth-most right corner threes — and both can be corrected over time.

If Gafford continues to disallow layups and dunks at a rate in the ballpark of what he did this year, players will get the message and keep out of the paint in his presence. The short threes will take a combination of stingier D on the perimeter — a tough task with Zach LaVine, Tomas Satoransky, and Coby White on the roster — and a defensive strategy that doesn’t leave the corners open. That would take some roster changes and a bit of common sense, but it could happen.

Of course, Gafford will have to shore up other parts of his defense and become at least passable on offense (-1.88 PIPM) for any of this to really matter. But if he adds a little more to his rim-rolling game and continues on this defensive trajectory, the Bulls won’t need to hope someone like James Wiseman falls in their lap. With Gafford, they already have their rim protector of the future.