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Springy Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins expounded on his impressive rookie season and became one of the NBA’s pleasant surprises.
Aside from failing to leap over a model Wright brothers plane in last February’s Dunk Contest, everything went right for Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins in year two.
The 21-year-old received an uptick in playing time in his sophomore season and he rewarded his coaches faith by upping his per-game scoring, rebounding, and passing stats while also improving his shooting efficiency.
Lest you think that his 19.5 points, 9.8 boards, and 2.0 assists were a byproduct of his on-court time going up, those same numbers took an even more substantial jump when adjusting them to per 36 minutes and per 100 possessions rates.
So while you can correlate some of his success to getting more chances to play, it’s far from the whole story.
So what is the whole story on Collins? Was he a stat padder who filled up the box score columns during blowout losses? Did he merely benefit from a pace and space offense headlined by a similarly promising, albeit erratic, point guard? Was he really as good as his numbers suggest?
As with most things, there’s plenty of room for nuance in the answers to those questions. Hopefully, this piece will offer a tangible response to most of them as well as whether Collins can become a focal point for (hopefully?) future Hawks playoff teams.
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<p>The 21-year-old received an uptick in playing time in his sophomore season and he rewarded his coaches faith by upping his per-game scoring, rebounding, and passing stats while also improving his shooting efficiency.</p>
<p>Lest you think that his 19.5 points, 9.8 boards, and 2.0 assists were a byproduct of his on-court time going up, those same numbers took an even more substantial jump when adjusting them to <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/collijo01.html#per_minute::none" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">per 36 minutes</a> and <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/collijo01.html#per_poss::none" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">per 100 possessions</a> rates.</p>
<p>So while you can correlate some of his success to getting more chances to play, it’s far from the whole story.</p>
<p>So what is the whole story on Collins? Was he a stat padder who filled up the box score columns during blowout losses? Did he merely benefit from a pace and space offense headlined by a <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://hoopshabit.com/2019/06/12/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-trae-young/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">similarly promising, albeit erratic, point guard</a>? Was he really as good as his numbers suggest?</p>
<p>As with most things, there’s plenty of room for nuance in the answers to those questions. Hopefully, this piece will offer a tangible response to most of them as well as whether Collins can become a focal point for (hopefully?) future Hawks playoff teams.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Positives </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-339706" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2132,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1085509314.jpeg" alt="Atlanta Hawks" width="3200" height="2132" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1085509314.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1085509314-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">(Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)</p>
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<h3>Positives</h3>
<p>To the question of whether John Collins’ stats translated to the team’s on-court success, the proof lies in the numbers, especially on offense.</p>
<p><a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/collijo01/on-off/2019" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Per Basketball-Reference</a>, the Atlanta Hawks’ offensive rating went from 104.3 to 113.4 with Collins on the floor, so that sorts out the “empty calorie” discussion.</p>
<p>As you would expect from a big man with Collins’ athleticism and skillset, the former Wake Forest Demon Deacon did his best work around the basket.</p>
<p>Not only was his 63.9 field goal percentage from inside 10 feet <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://stats.nba.com/players/shots-general/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GeneralRange=Less%20Than%2010%20ft&sort=FG_PCT&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*50:FGA*GE*5%22 target="_blank" rel="noopener">good for 12th</a> among players who appeared in at least 50 games and took at least five shots per game from that range, his 1.25 points per possession as the roll man on ball screens placed him in the 79th percentile among qualified players.</p>
<p>Those numbers kept an otherwise inept pick-and-roll and inside scoring team somewhat above water.</p>
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<p>Now, if you’re thinking “Hey, isn’t that basically what Collins did last year?”, you’re right. Where 2018-19 differed, however, was with his long-range shooting, at least in terms of volume.</p>
<p>Even though his 34.8 3-point field goal percentage still sat below the 35.5 percent league average, it was still respectable enough to keep make defenses pay for sagging off of him in anticipation for a flashy dunk or a layup, which will benefit him and the rest of the team in the long run.</p>
<p>His numbers from downtown mirrored what he did last year, but going from 0.6 attempts as a rookie to 2.6 in 2018-19 not only exemplified the Hawks’ goal to become Warriors-East, it put a spotlight on Collins’ newfound confidence in his stroke.</p>
<div style="width: 640px;" class="wp-video"><video class="wp-video-shortcode" id="video-364645-2" width="640" height="360" preload="metadata" controls="controls"><source type="video/mp4" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://ssl.cdn.turner.com/nba/big/nba/wsc/2019/02/08/69290e4a-75f4-e7f9-582f-4ce901191d20.nba_3282395_1920x1080_5904.mp4?_=2%22>
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<p>Collins’ seemingly limitless energy wasn’t limited to his offense. Despite a relatively modest 6-foot-11 wingspan, the young forward thrived as a rim protector.</p>
<p>Opponents shot only 44 percent from the field against Collins last year, a number that <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://stats.nba.com/player/1628381/defense-dash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was buoyed</a> by a stifling 55.5 opponents field goal percentage from inside six feet and a 52.6 percent clip from inside 10.</p>
<p>His 10.5 shot contests per game (26th in the league) suggest that those totals weren’t the result of players missing shots in his vicinity; his defensive effort caused plenty of those misses.</p>
<p>Combine all of that with his effort of the offensive and defensive glass, and there’s a lot to like about this young player.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Negatives </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-341619" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_1067,w_1600/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2016%2F04%2F1125326122.jpeg" alt="Atlanta Hawks" width="1600" height="1067" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2016/04/1125326122.jpeg 1600w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2016/04/1125326122-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">(Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)</p>
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<h3>Negatives</h3>
<p>No matter what other skills an NBA player has, one question will always separate the very good players from the great ones: Can you create your own shot off the dribble?</p>
<p>Obviously, shot creation isn’t the only determinant of greatness (see: <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" ref="nofollow">Stephon Marbury</a>, <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/crawfja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" ref="nofollow">Jamal Crawford</a>, <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willilo02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" ref="nofollow">Lou Williams</a>, and a litany of other high-volume shooters that offered little else) but in crunch time, it’s an important trait to have.</p>
<p>It’s this area where John Collins falls short. Only 0.8 of Collins’ shot attempts came following at least three dribbles and while that illustrates him as a player who functions well within his comfort zone, he risks painting himself into a corner with his limited skill set.</p>
<p>To be fair, Collins gave the Hawks some reliable scoring out of the post — his 1.01 PPP on post-ups put him in the 70th percentile — but at only 1.8 possessions per game, it was clear that the Atlanta Hawks didn’t see him as the second coming of <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olajuha01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" ref="nofollow">Hakeem Olajuwon</a>, nor should they have.</p>
<p>While he occasionally flashes some skills on the block, as you’ll see in the video below, it’s clear that he feels more at home as a rim roller.</p>
<div style="width: 640px;" class="wp-video"><video class="wp-video-shortcode" id="video-364645-3" width="640" height="360" preload="metadata" controls="controls"><source type="video/mp4" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2019/07/31/atlanta-hawks-2018-19-player-grades-john-collins/"https://ssl.cdn.turner.com/nba/big/nba/wsc/2019/02/08/90ae94a4-bbd5-b1a4-cd89-deb3d556f02d.nba_3282296_960x540_2500.mp4?_=3%22>
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