NBA draft Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images
Fans of the NBA love to read, listen and talk about the NBA Draft. The unknown of these talented young players, the hope of a franchise turning itself around based on who it selects. The draft and all of its implications are almost as possible as the games themselves.
Yet at the end of the day, very few fans have the time or the expertise to break down film and analyze these prospects themselves. They rely on experts in the media to do that for them and then explain their findings. The fact that any given expert, if they are worth anything, might be evaluating players differently than others only adds to the intrigue, as NBA teams all evaluate players differently as well.
The NBA Draft is all about looking ahead, but it’s helpful to sometimes look back. How did the “experts” do in their evaluations of the 2020 NBA Draft?
Given that the NBA Draft is such an unknown, and that even teams are somewhat blind as to which players will prove to be good value and which will not, it’s fair to go back and evaluate these so-called experts with the benefit of a little hindsight. One season later, how did some of the experts do in evaluating the 2020 draftees?
Evaluating the NBA Draft experts: Who are we evaluating?
For this exercise, we will take a look at five “experts” who made their personal rankings available publicly throughout the draft process. The Athletic’s John Hollinger and Sam Vecenie, the self-employed Chad Ford, and The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor. Finally, we will toss in my personal pre-draft rankings, which are much less reliable than the above experts.
We’ll take a look at each analyst’s best picks, their biggest misses, and give something of an overall grade. For reference on the value of players a year later we will be referencing our 2020 Redraft. We’ll start with the grandfather of public NBA Draft expertise, Mr. Chad Ford himself.
2020 Redraft</a>. We’ll start with the grandfather of public NBA Draft expertise, Mr. Chad Ford himself.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Chad Ford </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-430816" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2130,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1300183704.jpeg" alt="Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards" width="3200" height="2130" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1300183704.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1300183704-768x511.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards. Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images</p>
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<h2>Evaluating the NBA Draft experts: Chad Ford</h2>
<p>Chad Ford was one of the earliest draft analysts to gain a following, and he was a longtime fixture on ESPN and now on his own personal website. His pre-draft rankings are listed <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"http://insider.espn.com/nbadraft/results/top100/_/year/2020" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p>
<p><em>What he got right:</em> Ford was one of many to correctly peg LaMelo Ball as the best player in this draft class. He also dropped French point guard Killian Hayes to 10th, one of the lower numbers among analysts.</p>
<p>Further down the board, he was the highest of the five experts on Leandro Bolmaro, the Argentine combo guard, ranking him 23rd. Similarly, he had Jaden McDaniels ranked 24th, which while way too high was tied for the lowest of the group. Players such as Anthony Edwards, Devin Vassell, Aaron Nesmith and Aleksej Pokusevski came out similarly ranked a season later as they did in his pre-draft rankings.</p>
<p><em>What he got wrong:</em> Chad Ford ranked James Wiseman third overall, which was both similar to many but also too high. What was more aggressive than the consensus was his ranking of Deni Avdija, whom Ford had ranked at fourth overall but who went 14th in our redraft. He also went to bat for Precious Achiuwa, ranking the Memphis big man 12th, and Udoka Azubuike, ranking the Kansas center 34th; apparently, only the Utah Jazz were higher on Azubuike than Ford.</p>
<p>There were a few players that Ford ranked too low, including Immanuel Quickley at 42 — although in Ford’s defense, most everyone did. He was the lowest on Desmond Bane, ranking him at 35 (he went seventh in our redraft) and fellow Grizzlies draftee Xavier Tillman Sr. (33rd, when he went 22nd in the redraft). Finally, Ford was the lowest of the group by far on Paul Reed, the DePaul power forward; while Ford captured the league consensus, as Reed went 58th, he would almost certainly be a first-round pick now and went 19th in our redraft.</p>
<p><strong>Grade:</strong> C; Ford understands teams really well but seems to miss on certain factors that will kill a player in the modern NBA</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Sam Vecenie </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-430815" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2184,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1313758660.jpeg" alt="Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies" width="3200" height="2184" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1313758660.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1313758660-768x524.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies. Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images</p>
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<h2>Evaluating the NBA Draft experts: Sam Vecenie</h2>
<p>Sam Vecenie has been a longtime draft expert and currently writes for The Athletic. His pre-draft rankings are listed <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"https://theathletic.com/2198272/2020/11/16/top-100-nba-draft-prospects-for-2020-final-rankings-big-board-and-player-tiers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p>
<p><em>What he got right:</em> Vecenie was banging the drum for Desmond Bane as one of this draft’s best wing prospects, a plug-and-play 3-and-D shooter. He ranked Bane 19th, tied for the highest among our expert group. He was similarly the highest for Xavier Tillman Sr., also taken by the Grizzlies. He was among the highest for Tyrese Haliburton, ranking him seventh, and also properly ranked LaMelo Ball first and Anthony Edwards third.</p>
<p>Vecenie wisely had Killian Hayes ranked back at 10th, and even more wisely had Jalen Smith ranked at 32nd, the lowest of our group. He had Kentucky center Nick Richards down at 67th and was likewise quite low on other centers like Udoka Azubuike and Vernon Carey Jr.</p>
<p><em>What he got wrong:</em> Sam Vecenie was a strong supporter of James Wiseman, as he was of DeAndre Ayton two years before. Wiseman may still blossom as Ayton did, but both rankings reflect that Vecenie often gets carried away by these centers with all the physical tools. He had Onyeka Okongwu at fourth, which could still pan out but likely was again overvaluing a center over wings.</p>
<p>Vecenie had Immanuel Quickley ranked 46th and Tyrese Maxey ranked 14th, the largest disparity of the group between the two Kentucky guards (everyone got the order wrong). He also stumped for Tre Jones, ranking him 18th, expecting the shot to come around and focusing on his intangibles; without the shot, Jones may never get to see the court enough for the intangibles to matter.</p>
<p><strong>Grade:</strong> C+; Vecenie does a great job parsing through the second two-thirds of the draft, but he is too conservative at the top and needs to stop believing in centers.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Kevin O'Connor </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-430814" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_1115,w_1600/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1316143659.jpeg" alt="Killian Hayes, Detroit Pistons" width="1600" height="1115" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1316143659.jpeg 1600w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1316143659-768x535.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">Killian Hayes, Detroit Pistons. Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images</p>
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<h2>Evaluating the NBA Draft experts: Kevin O’Connor</h2>
<p>Kevin O’Connor has been covering the NBA Draft for years at The Ringer, and every year puts out an interactive draft guide that is absolutely worth your time. His final pre-draft rankings are listed <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"https://nbadraft.theringer.com/2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p>
<p><em>What he got right:</em> “KOC” was correct to highlight the deficiencies in Isaac Okoro’s offensive game and ranked him the lowest of the group at 11. Similarly, he pegged Onyeka Okongwu as the 10th-best player and not the 4th or 5th as the rest of the group. To complete the trifecta, he slotted Obi Toppin at 12th, when the next lowest was Vecenie at 8th. All three rankings were closer to where the player should be ranked a season later.</p>
<p>O’Connor also was high on Desmond Bane (19th) and Jaden McDaniels (24th); while both were too low he was tied for the highest in the group on both. Finally, he was aggressive in ranking Aleksej Pokusevski 13th, which may turn out to be prescient and at the least identifies the value in swinging for the fences with the right kind of prospect.</p>
<p><em>What he got wrong:</em> KOC went on two massive limbs compared to consensus, and both look shaky a season later. First, he ranked Killian Hayes first overall, which was aggressive then and looks misguided now. Even if Hayes rebounds from his rookie season and shows massive growth, the distance he would have to cover to pass Anthony Edwards, let alone LaMelo Ball, is tremendous.</p>
<p>Hayes at one was a reach, but at least the rest of the community saw him as a top-10 prospect and he went seventh overall, even if he would drop in a redraft. The more bold take was ranking Stanford guard Tyrell Terry at eighth overall. It was the outlier of outliers at the time; Vecenie was the next highest at 20th, and Terry wasn’t drafted until 31 and would likely go even lower in a redraft. There is still plenty to like about Terry, but it’s unlike he ends up a top-10 player from this class.</p>
<p>O’Connor was also a little too high on Deni Avdija, Jalen Smith and Precious Achiuwa. His ranking of Smith at 17 represents the late move up draft boards for the Maryland center, who ended up going 10th to the Phoenix Suns. He has barely played and been fairly bad when he has played and is unlikely to go in the first round if the draft was redone today.</p>
<p><strong>Grade:</strong> B-; I love that KOC doesn’t stick to consensus and goes out there, and sometimes it pays off and other times it doesn’t.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> John Hollinger </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-430813" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2137,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1307494983.jpeg" alt="Tyrese Haliburton, Sacramento Kings" width="3200" height="2137" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1307494983.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1307494983-768x513.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Tyrese Haliburton, Sacramento Kings. Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images</p>
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<h2>Evaluating the NBA Draft experts: John Hollinger</h2>
<p>A longtime writer for ESPN and inventor of the Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Hollinger is the former Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies. He now serves as a Senior NBA columnist for The Athletic, writing about many things including the NBA Draft. His pre-draft rankings can be found <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"https://theathletic.com/2005300/2020/08/19/hollingers-nba-draft-rankings-the-best-of-the-rest-players-24-through-70/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p>
<p><em>What he got right:</em> We have to start with John Hollinger’s most beloved player in the draft, DePaul’s Paul Reed. He saw Reed as a true defensive difference-maker with a skill set to become serviceable on offense and ranked him 12th overall. While I likewise ranked Reed as a late-lottery prospect, the other three experts ranked him in the 40s and 50s. While Reed may not be quite the high in the end, Hollinger was a whole lot closer than the rest of the basketball world.</p>
<p>Hollinger was also high on Tyrese Haliburton, ranking the Iowa State guard sixth overall, and was the highest on Payton Pritchard at 30th overall. He was also smart in dropping Memphis center James Wiseman to eighth and Israeli wing Deni Avdija to 16th, both within a spot or two of where they landed in our redraft. Finally, he was very low on the two centers the Charlotte Hornets took, Vernon Carey Jr. and Nick Richards.</p>
<p><em>What he got wrong:</em> To stump for players such as Paul Reed and Devin Vassell someone had to fall, and that player was Patrick Williams, whom Hollinger ranked 14th. While much of Williams’ current value is projection, his size and skill at this point project to a top-10 player from this draft. He was also the lowest of the group on Leandro Bolmaro, who could still fall anywhere on the board but is looking like he would go in the teens in a redraft. Hollinger also had Immanuel Quickley as low as 55th, which obviously looks like a gargantuan miss given Quickley’s strong rookie season.</p>
<p>Hollinger was a little too high on Killian Hayes (ranked 3rd), Onyeka Okongwu (4th) and Obi Toppin (5th), among the highest in the group on all of those players. Finally, he was the highest on Cole Anthony, ranking him 18th.</p>
<p><strong>Grade:</strong> B; I think Hollinger had the best board of any of the analysts, and his belief in players like Haliburton and Reed paid off.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> How did I do? </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-430812" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/07/01/nba-draft-experts-evaluating-2020/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_1076,w_1600/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2018%2F08%2F1310938017.jpeg" alt="Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves" width="1600" height="1076" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1310938017.jpeg 1600w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/08/1310938017-768x516.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images</p>
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<h2>Evaluating the NBA Draft <del>experts</del>: Josh Cornelissen</h2>
<p>Josh Cornelissen is a longtime writer at Hoops Habit and his opinion on prospects is based more on his knowledge of the NBA than anything else.</p>
<p><em>What I got right:</em> I was the highest of the group on Saddiq Bey, ranking him 15th, and should have been even higher. I also agreed with John Hollinger on Paul Reed’s upside, slotting him 12th on my final board. I was high, perhaps even a little too high on Devin Vassell (5th), but he’ll probably be a top-10 player in this draft by the end.</p>
<p>I saw some concerns with James Wiseman and dropped him to ninth, the lowest of the five experts, and likewise dropped Deni Avdija to 13th. I placed Josh Green at 32nd, also the low point of the group, and that’s around where he would go in a redraft. Finally, I was the highest of the group on Immanuel Quickley, ranking him 34th overall, which was somehow way too low even still.</p>
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<p><em>What I got wrong:</em> I will first acknowledge that I was not, and to an extent still am not, Anthony Edwards’ biggest supporter. I think he is a floor-raising gunner who can’t be a top-2 guy on a contender. That being said he earned a top-3 ranking in this class given his close to the season, and I ranked him the lowest of the group at 6th pre-draft. Mea culpa.</p>
<p>I was also too low on Patrick Williams, worried he would be asked to play the 3 with the skillset of a 4; thankfully the Bulls believed in him and put him at the 4, and he has shown enough to make it clear 14 was too low. International scouting is my biggest weakness as a casual draft analyst, and I am often too conservative (low) on international prospects; I ranked Leandro Bolmaro likely too low at 31. I was too high on Killian Hayes (2nd) and Obi Toppin (4th).</p>
<p>Finally, my Duke problem. I was the highest of the group on both Vernon Carey Jr. (27th) and Cassius Stanley (16th). Carey was a mistake, grasping onto a few straws when the big picture screamed that he was not a fit for the modern NBA. I’m still a believer in Stanley, although obviously not as a top-20 player, whose athleticism and motor should translate at some point.</p>
<p><strong>Grade:</strong> C; I feel really good about my 10-30 range, and while I was right to drop Wiseman I filled in the top-10 with the wrong players.</p>
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