The Washington Wizards’ defense has torpedoed back to earth

ORLANDO, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 13: Daniel Gafford #21 and Spencer Dinwiddie #26 of the Washington Wizards battle for a rebound with Wendell Carter Jr. #34 of the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center on November 13, 2021 in Orlando, Florida, Washington Wizards defense. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

At the start of the 2021-22 season, the Washington Wizards jumped out as one of the early pleasant surprises. Starting the year 10-3, the team’s initial success rested on its equally surprising defense, which ranked in the top five in points allowed per 100 possessions.

Sure, most of those stout efforts came at the expense of middling offensive teams, but hey, good defenses are supposed to stifle mediocre-at-best scoring attacks. Given how past Wizards’ defenses often failed to slow down any team, it was still encouraging, at the very least.

Following that hot start, however, Washington has looked more like the team everyone expected them to be coming into the season. They’ve gone 5-12 since November 17, and have now dropped to 21st in defensive rating.

Clearly, the Washington Wizards’ defense has faltered as the season has grown older, but given their personnel, this wasn’t much of a surprise.

In this extended rough stretch, the Wizards have allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions, and that 115.3 defensive rating is 6.1 points per 100 behind the league average. To put that in perspective, the 2019-20 Wizards ranked dead last in defensive rating and were only 4.9 points per 100 below the NBA mean.

Interestingly, Washington has continued to keep teams from firing off a ton of threes (second-fewest opponent’s attempts per 100 since November 17). But unlike the first 13 games, teams are making the ones they manage to get off (eighth-highest opponent’s three-point percentage).

Combine that with an inability to stop teams in the restricted area (28th in opponent’s efficiency since Nov. 17) and you get… well, a defense that looks like what would happen if you depended on the likes of Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, Davis Bertans, Montrezl Harrell, and Spencer Dinwiddie to get consistent stops.

To be fair, only Beal and Bertans have lived up (or down) to their reputations – both have a negative defensive LEBRON as of Dec. 18. However, even with the other names playing better defense than expected (with the caveat that other impact metrics aren’t as bullish on them), the cracks have started to show.

The Wizards November 24th game against the New Orleans Pelicans – who are still without Zion Williamson – put some of those fissures on public display. A New Orleans team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in offensive rating had no issues getting whatever they wanted in the paint.

Daniel Gafford played only played 14 minutes in that game, and with no other viable rim protectors, there wasn’t much they could do. That said, Gafford logged over 23 minutes against the Utah Jazz on Dec. 11 and many of the same problems presented themselves in a 123-98 loss.

So yeah, things are in a bit of disarray in D.C. It’s bad enough that the offense still hasn’t gotten going (23rd in points per 100), but now that the defense is faltering, too, any expectations that may have materialized for Wizards fans may disappear as quickly as they arrived.

Even more concerning, there doesn’t seem to be any path to improvement with this roster. Yes, Gafford will continue to give the team good rim protection, but without great point of attack defenders or players who can generate turnovers (tied for the fewest turnovers generated per 100), this is a team that has to rely on forcing missed shots to be at its most effective.

And as the Wizards have shown for the last month, they may not be good at that, either.